longevity
"In a century or two, or in a millennium, people will live in a new way, a happier way. We won't be there to see it- but it's why we live, why we work. It's why we suffer. We're creating it. That's the purpose of our existence. The only happiness we can know is to work toward that goal." -Three Sisters, act 2, By Anton Chekhov
There have been many times throughout my life when I have asked myself, 'what is the point of everything we humans do?' The immortal question, 'what is the purpose of life?' The conclusion I have always come to, is that the 'point,' is to help with the survival of our species, and to help ensure the wellness of future generations. All the lessons that have been learned through history, all the sciences, all the technological progress, and all the other knowledge gathered by each generation, has all been made to help ensure the longevity our our species. But... What does the phrase, survival our our species really mean? How long do we really hope to last? The list of problems we are going to have to face in just the next hundred years is mind bending. And, there are some truly overwhelming, almost impossible to imagine, problems that our species are going to one day face if they/we ever hope to live the next several million or even billion years. Is it even realistic to think that we will have future ancestors that will exist that far into the future? And what about after that? It seems to me that the way of overcoming species threading, cataclysmic problems, is taking time to identify the issues and then thinking about the possible solutions and outcomes of such issues. If we take time to think about what the future has in store for us then maybe we can prepare for some of the major dilemmas that may come along with it.
In the 1964 a Russian physicist by the name of
Nikolia
Kardashev developed a civilization classification system based on
a civilization's consumption of energy and the by-product energy they
produce through entropy. Under his
classification system there are three
major types or stages of
civilizations. These
classifications can be used to look into
the future of our own civilization and identify the possible
complications we may encounter.
The Type 1 Civilization is the type that is nearest in
our future. A type 1 civilization is one that has developed ways to
harness all forms of planetary energy. This includes the
ability to capture and use the entire amount of solar energy
striking the planet. This is estimated to be:
1016
watts. With all this planetary energy, a type 1 civilization would
conceivably be able to build cities under the ocean, have control
over weather patterns all around the planet, and have planet wide
communication systems.
Our Type 1 civilization will be ushered forth by the era of
what has been called "The Singularity." The Singularity is
a time when technological change begins to accelerate so fast that
it will represent what futurist/writer
Ray Kurzweil
describes as a "rupture in the fabric of human history." On
a line graph depicting technological progression, the Singularity is
when the line of progression becomes near vertical. During this age
humans will transcend the limitations of their biological brains and
bodies by merging with the incredible abilities of their technology.
"The Singularity will allow us to overcome age-old human
problems and amplify human creativity. We will preserve and enhance
the intelligence that evolution has bestowed on us while overcoming
the profound limitations of biological evolution. But the
Singularity will also amplify the ability to act on our destructive
inclinations, so it's full story has not yet been written." (-Ray
Kurzweil)
During the time of the Singularity our species will develop the
ability to take all the best attributes of our
technologies and integrate them into ourselves. Our
biologically evolved bodies have a lot of limitations, all of which
were adapted for a different time, way before civilization had
risen. In the next few decades we are going to begin eliminating
these biological limitations by using our technological resources. A few of the enhancements we will
be seeing are implants that
substantially increase our thinking speeds, memory storage,
information recall abilities, and information sharing abilities.
Perception enhancement technologies will be created to help our seeing, hearing
and tasting abilities. People will become stronger and faster with
the aid of muscle and neurological upgrades. Nanorobotics will play
a huge role in these technologies in that they can be implemented in
the body to assist or even replace human cells such as, blood cells,
organ tissue muscle cells, and brain cells.
One of the major
limitations our species currently has that will be changed during
this time period; is the fact that as time goes by, our neural pathways
slowly degrade along with the rest of our bodies, which accelerates the
reduction of our functionality, until death is upon us. A major step
in our progression will be finding ways to dramatically extend our
lifetimes. The longer we are able to
stay alive and functional, the more we will be able to learn and
share information. What if at age 60 you have the body and mind of a
20 year old? Imagine how smart and productive you could be. The
extension of lifespans indefinitely for all people could be amazingly
beneficial to our species. And as we move forward towards a type 1
civilization, and the singularity, our life extending
technologies will become more powerful. Well we are much closer to
this step then you may think... The average life expectancy has gone
up steadily decade after decade over the last century. In 1900 the
life expectancy was around 40 and now it's around 80 years of age. Since
technological growth is accelerating exponentially, the life
expectancy by the year 2060 is expected to be over 1000 years. The
implications of such lifespans are astounding. Such large extensions
in lifespans will have huge impacts on human civilization. Some of
them good. Some of them bad.
During the
age of the Singularity we will also see the
creation of incredibly powerful artificial intelligence (AI)
computer systems that will help our species to develop things such
as precise long-range weather models, find ways to perfectly
engineer almost anything on a nano scale, as well as find cures for diseases, and
develop incredible
environmental engineering projects. These super AI systems will be
able to process unfathomable amounts of information in milliseconds,
and thus will be able to solve extremely complex problems in
seconds. Our AI will be integrated into almost every aspect of human
technology. It will also assist in creating ways to improve our own
intelligence through non-biological, technological ways.
Artificial intelligence will be a great asset in the progression of
the human race to a type 1 civilization and way beyond, provided
that we don't destroy ourselves with it. Such powerful AI will
have the ability to increase it's own complexity and order. Thus
meaning that it will be able to create better versions of itself,
that are more efficient, more intelligent, more powerful and more
elegantly evolved. This is why, this step ties
directly into the human enhancement step. These two steps need to
match up with in the right time frame otherwise there could be real big
problems. If the AI technology gets to far ahead of our enhancement
technologies then they will have the power to eradicate our species from
existence. We are going to have to stay ahead of our AI systems by
increasing our intelligence using implants and such.
With the consideration of the
Law of Accelerating
Returns, we can see that the type 1 ranking
and the age of the Singularity, are not
as far
away from where we are now as one might think.
Our science and technology is accelerating in its progression
at an exponential rate. Each new generation of technology is
building off of the achievements of the last, thus allowing each new
generation to become vastly more capable at it's specific tasks then
the last generation. This creates an exponential pattern of growth.
So basically this means that the age of the Singularity is rapidly
approaching, and what is currently considered science fiction is in
the process of becoming a scientific reality. It is predicted that the 21st
century will experience ten thousand years of technological
progress, when measured at today's rate. So the issues that
might be brought up because of the age of the singularity are very
relevant to us today.
This is an era that can make or break us as an
intelligent, cohesively functioning species. Some major life
changing events
are in our near future that we may or may not be prepared for. All
of which play a big role in our survival or possible destruction
as a species. Most if not all of these major changes brought on by
scientific and technological advancements are completely
unavoidable, no matter how prepared our species is or isn't for
them. Identifying and understanding these major changes will help us
prepare and anticipate the major problems and dilemmas that may come
along with the lifestyle altering technological/scientific changes
ahead of us.
A considerable step in preparing our species to survive
well into the future
is developing the ability to work together for common goals. Some
huge social changes have got to take place. At
least the majority of our' people' must come to the realization that
we are all of the same species and that there is no constructive
point in breaking away into different warring factions because of differences in
culture, ethnicity and history. The varying beliefs that come from
our varying backgrounds are a major asset in our survival, in that
they allows for the growth of new perspectives and ideas. Cooperating
together also means we need to avoid the destruction of our selves
through nuclear war or any other type of warfare. In time the
longevity of our species will rest on our
ability to work together. I'm not saying we need world peace. That
is not realistic. We just need some more stability and cohesiveness
then we have now.
As our species progresses, our populations increase at
an explosive rate
which enviably leads to an increased need for energy and resources.
Currently we are just now beginning to see the problems that arise
from these needs. In addition to our increase in needs, our
expansion also places a growing strain on the planet. If our species
hopes to survive this stage in our history, we will need to
find ways to harvest larger amounts of energy and resources in efficient,
non-destructive ways. The big advances in technology will defiantly
help with this but we have to know how to, and agree to, use them.
This is a critical step in the progression of our civilization and
truly needs to be addressed as a priority.
If our species is to not only survive, but thrive into the future; we are going to have to learn to deal with the
potential catastrophic events looming over us. We must clearly
identify these threats and develop means of avoiding them.
Technological road-blocks will soon no longer be a problem but this
doesn't mean anything if we don't dedicate
ourselves to finding ways of applying our minds and technological
achievements to dealing with these potential species eradicating
events. This is another example of why we need to find ways to come
together and cooperate as a species on certain issues. No one (competent) from any
culture, country, or background wants to see the complete
destruction of everything we have worked so hard to accomplish,
along with the deaths of billions. Just a few examples of these
catastrophic threats are: the eventual certainty that a
large asteroid will hit our planet. The knowledge that someday a
super volcano will erupt creating world-wide repercussions. And the clear understanding that our
planet goes through cycles of extreme temperature changes which lead
to things like ice-ages or really high sea levels. These are all
things that could very easily destroy our civilization. So we must
begin to treat them as serious threats. The earth has a little bit of a violent history and there is
no reason to believe that this wont continue. (For more on this time
period check out the following thinkersbebo content:
Looking Ahead,
Singularity Video,
Space Economics,
Accelerating Returns
Video,)
We can't go too much farther into this article without mentioning the limits posed by Thermodynamics. The second law of Thermodynamics states, that the total amount of entropy always increases. This means that everything must eventually run down, get old and fall apart. Entropy cannot be stopped, and this applies to everything in the universe, so there is no escaping it. The problems and limitations that are and will be posed by this second law of thermodynamics are going to be something that we are going to have to continually face as our species progresses. The death of planets, stars, solar systems and even the universe, are just a few of these foreseeable dilemmas. However, even though we cannot stop entropy, we can decrease it in small local areas with the extra effort of mechanical work. This is why we are able to use technology to save food in a freezer, extend our life spans and maybe someday extend the life of our sun and earth. Any successful, progressing civilization will always have to keep this law in mind.
A
Type 2 Civilization
is one that
has exhausted all the energy of a single planet and has developed a
way of harnessing the power of an entire star.
This is estimated to be:
1026 watts. A type 2
civilization will also be able to consume the entire energy output of
their star and may even have the technology to control solar flares
and ignite other stars. This type of civilizations will be in the
process of spreading it's self out beyond the limitations of earth,
and into space
Before
humanity is able to even consider the possibility of becoming a type
2 civilization, we are going to have to put forth copious amounts of
research as well as resources into space travel and other space
related technologies. The development of fast, efficient ways of
traveling off of earth into space will be a priority. Millions
if not billions of people will be living and working off of earth's
surface. In order to survive the human race will also need to become a multi planet
species because of resource restrictions and just out of peer safety
reasons. "It is important for the human race to spread
out into space for the survival of the species." -(Stephen
Hawking) It's plausible that by the time we reach type 2 status we
will have already begun traveling to even colonizing nearby star
systems. New incredibly powerful forms of deep space propulsion
techniques will need to be adopted to allow for transportation of
people and goods to other planets. Luckily by this time human
intelligence will be trillions of trillions of times more powerful
then today. (...to say the least. Probably much, much more then
that.)
The energy needs of this age will be
enormous so we will undoubtedly need to develop new ways of
harvesting substantially more then ever before. By this point
most the resources on the earth will have been used up. So the sun
is the most likely place to derive our
increased need for
energy from, but my guess is that there will be other forms of power
generation as well. In time, entire stars will be 'harvested' for
their energy. The construction of massive power relay stations
will be needed both in space and on the surface of planets, to move vast amounts of
energy over huge distances. Mass mining operations will be put into
place to gather resources from places like moons and asteroids
belts. This will require that massive cargo ships be built to
transport mined materials across space at incredibly high speeds.
It's possible that macro and/or nano-robotics play a large role in
these operations.
People in the type 2 civilization will have
become completely integrated with their technology. The
technological integration that had started in the time we are living
in now will be at a
point that is hardly imaginable. The average human in this era
will think unfathomably faster then the most powerful AI systems of the type 1 civilization. All the information in an
individual's brain which would normally be stored in biological
neurons, would instead be stored in an artificial brain unit, capable
of much more storage and much more computational power at any single moment,
then our biological ones. (much like the nanorobotic neuron
assistance we will be seeing in our near future). With non-biological brains, each and every
human in this age will be immortal. If something bad were to happen
to their physical body, all the information in their artificial
brain cells will instantly be transferred into a different
artificial brain waiting somewhere else. (this process would be
similar to transferring a document from one computer to another.)
A major foreseeable risk with groups of people living
so far apart (living in space and o other planets) is that people
could begin to feel detached, and no longer a part of the rest of
their civilization. Factions might begin to form and get upset and
revolt when laws originating from different planets are enforced on
them. Much like the American colonies in the 1600's. The results of
a civilization spreading it's self out so much, might be disastrous
if not planned right. Civil wars and rebellions may spring up on a
regular basis. To avoid this there will have to be stable, fair
governments with a lot of influence and input from it's people.
There will also need to be a large degree of connectivity between
planets, so that groups don't begin to feel separated from the rest
of the civilization. This may very well be the largest, most
difficult challenge a type 2 civilization would face.
A
Type 3
Civilization will have
exhausted all the energy and resources of at least a single solar system.
It will have spread out and colonized
large portions of a single galaxy in an effort to gather other
resources (among other reasons). This type of civilization will be
able to fully utilize the power of 10 billion stars or more. A type
3 civilization's energy consumption is estimated to be somewhere
around
1036
watts. A civilization of this magnitude is
so far from where we are now that it's incredibly difficult to
imagine.
We can only really speculate at the sorts of things a
type 3 civilization would need to deal with.
By this time the progression of technology has reached a
point that we - now, would be unable to comprehend. Humans in this
era will have gone through so much development that they would be
unrecognizable to a person from our age. They may not even classify
themselves as human anymore. Nothing about them will be even remotely similar to
anything biological evolution can produce. In all probability they
will not be at all biological. They may consider themselves the
decedents of the human race.
In order for the human race to progress this far into
the future, we absolutely must have a complete understanding of the
universe and the physics that rule it. A type 3 civilization will
not only have the theory of everything but will have the technology
and resources to manipulate portions of the universe it's self.
Its very possible that a theory of everything could be just around
the corner from where we are now. It's unreasonable to think that
only a type 2 or 3 civilization would be able to form such a theory.
But until one is put together we don't really know. It
may be that a sizable amount of computing power will be needed to
sort through the massive complexities to form an elegant one line
theory of everything. Or perhaps it's just a simple idea that no one
has had yet. Either way, the science of physics is the science of
understanding the universe we live in and this understanding is
critical to the development and longevity of an intelligent species.
A theory of everything will be necessary to for our species to reach
a type 3 status.
It has been mentioned by some physicists that one of
the major foreseeable problems that a type 3 civilization
would face is the logistics of communication over the incredibly vast
distances in which they populate. People living in one star system
would need to communicate with the next star system over, and/or a
star system that's 200 light years away. As I mentioned before,
communication is a key
asset in having a stable civilization. Even if these people found a
way to send information back and forth using lasers, it would still
take hundreds of years for messages to get to a star system hundreds
of light years away. A type 3 civilization must develop a faster
then light data transportation system if they are to survive.
However, in my mind this would probably not even be an issue, because a civilization that has
surpassed the age of Singularity will have in all likelihood
developed ways to 'think', that is, transport information with-in
their brains faster then the speed of light. And a civilization that
has the ability to manipulate space it's self through it's knowledge
of physics should have no problem transferring information from one
star system to another very quickly. You have to figure that the
'people' of this age will have pretty good problem solving skills.
Considering that even the people of a type 2 civilization are able
to process information trillions of trillions of times faster then
the fastest AI systems of the type 1 civilization era; which are
themselves billions of times faster then we are today. (and this is
a very low estimate, according to what I have read) This may actually be
the type of issue that is
discussed by a much less advanced civilization, going through the
beginning stages of the age of Singularity.
The current understanding of the universe is that it is expanding
exponentially. This not only means that distances between stars and
galaxies are growing but this also means that eventually atoms will
move further and further away from one another until they lose their bonds.
This expansion also means that the background radiation of space
will become thinly spread out thus dropping the temperatures. Star
will slowly lose their ability to fuse hydrogen, while also moving
farther way from their planets, both of which adds to the reduction
of temperatures in space and on planets. This is a
very slow process, but in all probability it will eventually destroy
all life in the universe. If life forms don't freeze to death by the
distance and eventual weakening of star light, then they will die
from the inability to form chemical bonds. In time the expansion of
the universe will destroy all matter and put a halt on the ability
for information to travel. This age is called The Great Rip and it's
the outcome of the second law of thermodynamics. "Death can be
defined as the final cessation of all information processing. Any
intelligent species in the universe, as it begins to understand the
fundamental laws of physics, will be forced to confront the ultimate
death of the universe and any intelligent life it may contain."
(- Michio Kaku) If our species is able to
survive for the next 1023
years, the Great Rip will most likely
bring about their destruction. The only chance an intelligent species
would have is to leave this universe and travel to another one
that's younger, and more suitable for life. If you consider the
amount of progress humans could make over the course of 1023
years; it's not difficult to imagine the possibility that they may
have multi universe traveling technology. That is, if it is possible
for a species to survive that long.
Many modern theories of physics including M theory and quantum
theory purpose that we are in just one of many universes. There may
even be an infinite number of universes, all of which are very
different from one another, in everyway possible. If any intelligent species
is going to continue to survive beyond the ending phases of the
universe they will need to use their complete understanding of
physics to develop a way to locate and 'jump' into a different,
suitable universe. Another possibility is that a type 3 civilization
would have access to enough energy and resources to create a brand
new baby universe that would quickly grow into very large universe.
In his book Parallel Worlds
Michio Kaku explains how this might be possible. "One might heat
up a small region of space to 1029 degrees K, and
then rapidly cool it down. At this temperature, it is conjectured
that space time becomes unstable; tiny bubble universes would begin
to form and a false vacuumed might be created." So basically if
we can concentrate enough energy into one tiny, single point in
space, a baby universe may spring out of now where. He also went on
to say that these baby universes would not be able to be seen but
there would be what he described as umbilical cord -like wormholes
that connect our universe to the baby ones. A type 3 civilization
would by definition have the energy needed for the creation of a
baby universe, if it is indeed possible. They would also have the
technology to allow them to travel through a wormhole to reach
another universe, if its possible.
There are a ton of changes our species are going have to go through if we are going to survive in the long run. Each new generation is and always has been forced to face new sets of problems. Our survival is dependent on our ability to adapt, and improve. I'm not sure if we will be able to overcome all the challenges that are ahead of us, but I know that we are capable of learning ways to take the needed steps to increase the probability of our longevity. But, if we are going to get anywhere we are going to have to spend a lot more time thinking.
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